Home News Poll suggests Trump may lose 9% of voters if found guilty of criminal charges

Poll suggests Trump may lose 9% of voters if found guilty of criminal charges

Poll suggests Trump may lose 9% of voters if found guilty of criminal charges

A poll released Thursday shows Donald Trump faces political in addition to legal jeopardy if he’s found guilty of criminal charges by a jury.

The nationwide survey by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found that the majority respondents wouldn’t be swayed by the end result of any of the 4 felony cases — including the continued Latest York trial — however the 2024 presumptive GOP nominee risks losing nearly 10% of his supporters if he’s convicted.

“A large majority said a criminal conviction for Trump wouldn’t affect their vote, which is smart for folk who’ve their minds made up,” said Michael Binder, the director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab. “What could dramatically impact the election is the 9% of Trump voters who said they’d be less more likely to vote for him if he’s convicted.”

That is an important electorate, Binder added, on condition that Trump led President Joe Biden within the poll by 2-percentage points, 47% to 45%, which was well throughout the four-point margin of error. As well as, 3% of those surveyed said they remained undecided.

“Trump is up by 2 percentage points amongst this sample, but with one other 3% who aren’t sure, a four-point margin of error, and the importance of individual states within the Electoral College, it would likely be a really close race six months from now,” Binder added.

“Interestingly, 6% of respondents who said they voted for Biden in 2020 report switching to team Trump in 2024, with 4% going to a different candidate. Conversely, only 2% of 2020 Trump voters said they’re making the jump to Biden, and one other 2% said they’d vote for another person.”

What the poll revealed about how a Trump conviction might sway, or not, voters

When asked how a Trump criminal conviction might impact their decision, 67% said it could don’t have any influence, 24% said they’d be less more likely to vote for Trump, including the 9% who identified as Trump supporters, and seven% said they’d then be more more likely to solid a ballot for him.

The trial in Latest York is in its second week, and the prosecution began calling witnesses on Monday. Trump is under a gag order but continues to rail against the proceedings.

“It is a Political Witch Hunt — ELECTION INTERFERENCE,” he posted again on his social media platform on Wednesday.

The poll also confirmed, again, that each major party presumptive nominees remain unpopular.

Biden registered only 39% with “either strongly or somewhat favorable” and 57% unfavorable. Trump rated a bit of higher at 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. broke even at 35%, but almost a 3rd of respondents said they didn’t know enough about him to attract a conclusion.

The survey of 745 likely voters was conducted April 8-20, including the week wherein a jury was seated for Trump’s trial on charges of committing business fraud to cover a purported hush-money payment to an adult film actress, Stormy Daniels, within the weeks before the 2016 election. Trump has entered a not-guilty plea and has denied claims he had an affair with Daniels.

April 23, 2024; New York, NY, USA; Former President Donald Trump appears in Manhattan Supreme Court for the 6th day of the hush money trial against him on April 23 2024. Mandatory Credit: Curtis Means/USA TODAY Network

Trump said states rights should resolve abortion policy. What voters said within the UNF poll.

The poll also found the country fairly split on the difficulty of abortion, particularly if it ought to be decided by Congress or state legislatures as is Trump’s position now.

Just below half, 48% said it ought to be selected Capitol Hill, with 30% saying it ought to be handled “entirely on the national level” and 18% saying “mostly on the national level.” Only 38% called for the difficulty to be settled by the states, with 21% responding “entirely on the state level” and 17% selecting “mostly on the state level.”

Half of respondents supported a national ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, or to avoid wasting the lifetime of the mother, while 40% opposed it and 10% were unsure.

On Tuesday, Biden spoke in Tampa where he again made reproductive rights a centerpiece of his campaign, and took aim on the six-week abortion ban about to take hold in Florida next week.

“Look, next week, one in every of the nation’s most extreme anti-abortion laws will take effect here in Florida,” the president said. “It’s criminalizing reproductive health take care of — before women even know whether or not they’re pregnant.”

UNF’s Binder said the poll’s results suggest that while the abortion issue stays a hot button, in Florida and elsewhere, it might not be as determinative in November.

“With the repeal of Roe and the passage of restrictive abortion laws in multiple states, it has been a top issue across the country,” said Binder. “Whether or not that issue alone is sufficient to propel Biden to victory in November is one other story.”



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